Hydrological Scenario of the Quilca-Vitor-Chili River Basin: Current and Future Estimates
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Abstract
The objective of the study was to estimate current and future hydrological scenarios in the Quilca-Vitor-Chili basin for both population and agricultural water demands. The methodological process involved collecting climatic and hydrological data from SENAMHI, as well as high-resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data from NASA. The data were processed using the SWAT model for hydrological estimation. The model’s performance was evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R²), the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency index (NSE), and the Percent Bias (PBIAS). The hydrological scenario showed average annual streamflows of 11.54 m³/s for the year 2024, with a slight increase to 14.87 m³/s projected for 2040, based on a SWAT model validation with R² = 0.75, NSE = 0.72, and PBIAS = -18.4%. The analysis identified that both current and future hydrological scenarios exhibit water stress levels exceeding 80%, highlighting the urgent need to implement integrated water resources management strategies.
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