Climate change and irrigation demand for rice (Oriza sativa L.) in Cuba
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Abstract
Given the possible effects of climate change (CC), expressed in the increase in temperatures and the decrease in rainfall, it is expected among the main impacts motivated by CC for rice cultivation in the country the reduction of the crop area, due to the lower availability of water, lower quality crops and total magnitude. Taking into account the above, and the importance of this crop for the country, this work was proposed to study the effect of rainfall variations using the SSP1 2.6 climate scenario and three regional climate models (Hadgem3-gc31-ll-SSP12.6, Mpi-esm1-2-hr-SSP126 and Mri-esm2-0-SSP126), with climatic variables until the year 2050, using the CropWat 8.0 program to calculate irrigation demand at six sites distributed in the Western (2), Central (2) and Eastern (2) regions of the country. Regardless of the model studied for the evaluation of rainfall, there was a decrease in values from west to east, with averages of 1644, 1467,5 and 1239,1 mm year-1 for the western, central and eastern zones, respectively; water demand was higher in the Hadgem3-gc31 model with an average gross water demand of 1337,5 mm for the 6 sites studied for a 130 day cycle and 5,8 and 4,3 % higher for the Mpi-esm1-2hr-SSP126 and Mri-esm2-0-126 models, respectively. It is suggested that further studies on the subject be continued, including the possible effect of temperatures on the decrease of both the cycle and the yield of the crop.
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