Spatial Limit of Agricultural risk and its Economic Impact Due to Flooding in the Chillon River, Peru
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Abstract
Agricultural planning and disaster risk management are essential for preventing and preserving socioeconomic development. The study aimed to define the spatial limits of agricultural risk and its direct economic impact due to flooding in the Chillón River in the Carabayllo district, Peru. Geographic Information System (GIS) tools and reliable databases were used for the research. Seven hydrological scenarios were applied with rigorous statistical analysis, along with numerical models for one-dimensional (1D) hydraulic modeling. Agricultural risk was defined by the relationship between hazard and vulnerability, considering the economic impact on different sectors. The main results indicated that the extreme maximum flood scenario reached 102,17 m³/s. The hydraulic modeling identified two agricultural risk limits due to river flooding, affecting the yield of vegetables, poultry farms, and pig production over an area of 0,24 km² and 0,37 km² in the 20 and 1000 year scenarios, causing economic losses of 5,169.14 USD and 6,509.04 USD, respectively. In conclusion, an integrated method was developed to simulate agricultural risk from river flooding.
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